Critical Chance

Tag: Technology

  • The Next Divide

    The Next Divide

    There’s a divide on the horizon, and it’s unlike ones we’ve seen in the past.

    When we use the word “divide” to describe a phenomenon, it usually refers to access; one group of people has access to a resource, while a second group does not. We’ve seen this around the world with clean water, education, and nutritious foods. If you happen to be born in a country that doesn’t have one of these resources (or a limited supply of one), you’re at a disadvantage and there’s not much you can do about it – tough luck.

    But today we’re looking at a different divide, one which I believe will be synonymous with the 21st century. It has to do with access, but in a completely new way.

    I call it, “The Next Divide” and it’s a digital one.

    Chapter 1:  Active vs Passive

    Are you using your phone, or is your phone using you?

    We live in an amazing time. Your phone can retrieve endless quantities of entertainment, social connection and knowledge.

    Consider for a moment that you’re able to travel back in time to 1980. You encounter your 1980’s doppelgänger self and you do your best to explain smartphones in 2019.

    Let’s face it, we tend to spend a large portion of our time surfing our phones without meaningful intent. This isn’t completely our fault, it more has to do with the implicit relationship between you and your phone.

    While your phone offers you endless possibilities, it comes at a cost. Instead of money, most apps demand something else: your time and attention.

    New-age business models

    Internet companies (and many smartphone apps) make money by keeping you on their products longer. They do this by monetizing their products through online advertising, which directly correlates with engagement and time spent on their website. The more they know about you, the better they can convert your data into cash.

    Question: What happens when our most valuable businesses operate in this way?

    Answer: Our most brilliant data scientists and software engineers are being taken from every other industry to work on the same objective: keep you online longer.

    According to Tristan Harris, a “design ethicist,” the problem isn’t that people lack willpower; it’s that “there are a thousand people on the other side of the screen whose job it is to break down the self-regulation you have.”

    While you’re scrolling through Instagram, there are thousands of MIT, Harvard, and Berkley engineers running multivariate tests, all to determine the best way to break down your self-control and keep you on their app longer.

    Personally, I find myself being used, all the time.

    Last week, I decided to open Instagram to see what my friends were up to. My intention was to scroll for 5 or 10 minutes, but 30 minutes later I caught myself mindlessly watching puppy video clips. The power dynamic shifted because I was no longer making the choices.

    For the first five minutes, I was in control of the content, but soon after Instagram took over by deciding what to put in front of me. Facebook had been battling for control over my attention, and it had won.

    Digital and online for that matter, isn’t a story of all negatives, there are positives too:

    When I was 18 I received a guitar as a gift. Before then my involvement in playing instruments was limited, however learning guitar was a cool aspiration I’d always had. Unlike generations before me, I shrugged off formal training, and instead took to YouTube for lessons.

    Between the hundreds of videos and endless practicing, I learned how to play guitar and still do today. Sure, that took discipline; I played for at least an hour everyday after school, but there were far less distractions back then.

    This is just one small example; there are millions of people who have elevated their musical ability through the type of lessons the internet can provide. If you take a step back and consider this idea, you’ll recognize that people are applying it to all areas of expertise (ie: coding, art, history, the list goes on).

    So ask yourself, who really has the power in your tech relationship? And further, are are you trading your asset (time and attention) at a positive return? Or perhaps the technology has the upper-hand?

    Summary: The 21st Century has created a new tier of human potential, but the question is…

    Chapter 2:  Which Group Are You In?

    While technology is accelerating our ability to achieve amazing intellectual, creative and productive feats, it’s ability to distract us is accelerating at an equal clip. You can’t go a day without being inspired, yet so distracted at the same time. It’s these conditions that make the digital divide possible.

    Sometimes success is 3% brains and 97% not getting distracted by the internet.

    Shane Parrish

    The digital divide will create two groups:

    Group 1 is able to control their focus and leverage technology to improve themselves, and moreover, reach greater potential.

    [Technology] is a great way to automate a habit. You can save for retirement with an automatic deduction from your paycheck. You can curtail social media browsing with a website blocker.

    Technology can transform actions that were once hard, annoying, and complicated into behaviors that are easy, painless, and simple.

    It is the most reliable and effective way to guarantee the right behavior.

    James Clear

    Meanwhile, Group 2 is trading their time for mindless surfing. Their behavior is not only distracting themselves from the world around them, but it’s also causing them to achieve less.

    And technology can rewire our brains.

    The Sleeping Scientist

    We each have a little scientist named Hank, who manages a lab within our brain. It’s Hank’s job to control your focus, and he does this by balancing your distraction liquid 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

    There’s a constant replenishment of distraction at all times; your thoughts wander as new stimuli enter and exit your external environment.

    Some people are born with more liquid than normal, others develop habits which increase their exposure over time. Ultimately, you train your Hank to manage his beakers in the best way possible. My personal favorite strategy is meditation.

    But the crux of the problem is that digital applications are training your Hank to be irresponsible. Have you ever sat down to work on something, only to find yourself distracted 10 minutes later? What about open your phone to do something, and then completely forget?

    That’s your Hank falling asleep in the lab, and when Hank doesn’t pay attention, he causes leaks and spills.

    Here’s what distraction looks like:

    Small naps lead to extreme compounding. . One laboratory spill leads to a broken beaker, which leads to less liquid control in the future. Lab explosions move from a rarity to a constant affair in your head.

    So over a short period (1-2weeks), the difference is marginal. However as the time series extends further, the differences become insurmountable.

    I’ve written about the power of compounding many times; Albert Einstein dubbed it as one of the greatest wonders of the universe. Talk about a bold statement, especially from a man who revolutionized modern day physics (and astronomy).

    Summary: Whether you’re in Group 1 or Group 2, will become a life-changing characteristic.

    Over the next ten years, this macro trend will lead to enormously disparate outcomes. Great or terrible, it all depends on which group you fall into.


    Chapter 3: The AI Revolution

    We’ve now established that access (per the traditional sense) isn’t the problem; each group can connect to the internet at relatively similar speeds. Instead this divide focuses on the way in which people leverage the internet (use the resource).

    Enter Artificial Intelligence, aka: the great accelerator.

    AI is a comprehensive subject, so I’m going to over-simplify a bit here. If afterwards readers have greater interest in the mechanics, I can write up a separate blog post. But for now, let’s just say there have been some major advancements in the field.

    Once of the largest breakthroughs is around this idea called deep learning.

    Previously you could only train a computer to follow a set of rules (or simple algorithms). You would tell a machine that if it hears the phrase, “Knock, Knock” it needs to answer, “Who’s there?” Any variations from “Knock, Knock” and the computer not be able to respond.

    Now, with deep learning, we can give the computer a massive set of data (in this case jokes) and train it to learn humor. Scientists watch it learn in real time and correct it whenever it makes a mistake. After lots of data and repetition, it eventually “learns” the idea.

    Mechanically the computer forms connections just like how our brains do. These are called neural networks, and to get a better visualization of how these systems work, you can check out the Tensorflow Playground.

    What does this mean for the Digital Divide?

    AI is (already) learning your behaviors, tailoring content, and therefore be able to break you down significantly further.

    Remember those thousands of MIT graduates running multi-variate tests? Now imagine if they programmed a super-computer with more power and genius level pattern recognition. They will now discover things about you that were unfathomable with humans experimenting alone.

    Summary: AI is forming a massive crater in the ground, and it is going to push the two groups further apart.

    It will be on us to make sure there are enough formidable bridges to provide opportunity for those stuck on one side, however more likely than not, AI Valley will destroy your hopes of crossing… if you wait too long.

    Conclusion: Big Distractions or Big Dreams?

    I believe these gaps will be filled over time, but it’s going to take time and large innovations in technology.

    Right now companies are making money off of your time and attention, so there’s no incentive to turn a passive person into a more active person. Yet, if we want to grow to our total potential, we need to flip the script and change the way we use our attention ourselves.

    Which side of the digital divide will you be on?

    The earlier you decide, the more you’ll gain.

    “Don’t be on your deathbed someday, having squandered your one chance at life, full of regret because you pursued little distractions instead of big dreams.”


    ― Derek Sivers

    Will you chase your dreams?

    This post was inspired by:

    Irresistible: The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked by Adam Alter

    The Four: The hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google by Scott Galloway

    The Future of Happiness by Amy Blankson

    The Coddling of the American Mind by Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff

    Essays by Tristan Harris

  • Delayed… gratification

     

    Written on April 5th, 2018

10 minute read

    Delayed… Gratification

     

    Everyone has trouble delaying gratification, but some people have it worse than others.

     

    Let’s explore why it’s so hard, and how it connects to your success.

     

     

    Part 1: It’s not (totally) your fault

     

    Our brains are wired to favor immediate reward.

     

    Two Million years ago, our only priority was to stay alive. Cavemen didn’t have time to sit around and contemplate life (sorry Aristotle!), instead they needed to hunt and gather. Our human brains encouraged this behavior through a short-term feedback loop, which worked really well. This simple system was at the root of our survival; don’t be eaten, successfully procreate, and improve living conditions.

     

    While humans have evolved and developed the ability to rationalize, our brains continue to use the same decision-making system.

     

    It’s as if we have the newest iPhone, but it’s running on the original Mac software.

    Using fMRI machines, scientists can observe what is going on in our brains while we make decisions. Ultimately, it’s a fight between two parts of your brain; emotional vs. rational.

     

    When we choose immediate gratification, our emotional parts are in control; when we choose future rewards, our rational parts are running the show. (Brain Battles, 2004).

    This explains why, when we’re under stress, we tend to break goals and indulge in bad habits. Stress basically numbs our prefrontal cortex and gives complete control to the amygdala.

     

    That’s our fight or flight mechanism, and, when that’s in control, the fighters take new shape. (The amygdala and decision making, 2010).

     

    It’s like emotional morphs into Muhammed Ali, while rational downgrades into a nostalgic childhood geek.

     

    Place your bets.

    But there’s a greater issue.

     

    Today’s world is significantly different than that of our ancestors; our goals are at odds with our brains.

     

    Want to get in better shape?

    • Work-out daily, become lean months later

     

    Want to start a business?

    • Operate on annual losses, see profit years later

     

    Want to be more financially independent?

    • Save and invest for decades, have enough to retire comfortably later in life

     

    We’re in a constant fight against immediate reward, and our ability to overcome it is extremely predictive of future success.

     

    This is especially true in the 21st century, but, before we apply it to our lives today, let’s take a quick look back on history.

     

    Part 2: Human time dilation and relativity

     

    Time dilation is a scientific concept discovered in 1897 by Joseph Larmor (source). Time dilation occurs when two people are looking at the same event but observe a different amount of elapsed time.

     

    When this gets discussed in the scientific community, it’s focused around velocity and gravitational fields. For example, when we are on Earth we look out into the universe and view things in “Earth-time,” which is based on our gravitational field. If we were on Mars, we would see the exact same events, but happening slightly slower. This is because the gravitational field on Mars is different, and, therefore, time moves at a different speed.

     

    Have you seen the movie Interstellar?

     

    The scene below is touted by some astrophysicists as one of the best visual representations of time dilation ever. In this scene, part of the team spends less than 15 minutes on a high-gravitational planet. When they return back to their ship, 23 years has passed for the crew members who remained on board.

     

     

    I posit this is happening everyday, all around us.

     

    …

    Instead of velocity and gravity, it’s based on our experiences and use of technology.

     

    Here’s what I mean:

     

    The technology we use has subtly established new baselines for our expectations and our patience.

     

    This change began a few centuries ago, but it is progressing. Quickly.

     

    Months: In the 1600s, when settlers first arrived in America, they set up a monthly horseback post between New York and Boston [1]. Back in that time, that was the speed of communication and exploration; it was their reality. Think about it, not only did they wait months to receive messages by post, but it took them months to sail across the ocean and arrive in America. Their reference point for time was in months, basically the currency or units of exchange.

    Days: Once the United States Postal Service was established in 1775, improvements in infrastructure allowed mail to be delivered on a more regular basis. By the 1800s, Americans were becoming used to receiving new mail each day, a vast improvement from the century before. With this improvement, the new baseline shifted from monthly to daily.

    Hours: In the late 1800s, Alexander Graham Bell figured out a way to transmit sounds over wires, creating the landline telephone [2]. While the invention occurred in the 1800s, consumer adoption didn’t start taking hold until the 1960s [3]. With a telephone in every home and office, it was expected that you’d be able to answer or return a call within a few hours of receiving one. What was also widely popular around this time? The color television and the evening news. These technologies helped create a new world, one understood by the hour.

    Minutes: Ray Tomlinson is credited with inventing email in 1972 [4], but it wasn’t until the 1990’s when email became more adopted by everyday people. Likewise, microwaves become common in every home, which meant one great leap; foods that were meant to take an hour to cook, would now be ready in minutes. Children born in the 90’s are also referred to as the “Microwave generation” for this reason. Kids growing up at this time naturally saw the world through minutes, and would now be able to have another basic need even faster than their parents.

    Seconds: Steve Jobs. Just by saying his name, you likely pictured two things; iPhones and black turtlenecks. We can credit him with the proliferation of smartphones, and along with those, improvements in mobile apps, sites and tools. A few seconds, can feel like an eternity. And if you need proof of this point, 53% of mobile users abandon sites that take longer than 3 seconds to load [5]. Today, for better or worse, the baseline is seconds.

    The baseline leaps between generations continues to accelerate.

     

     

    The boxes are getting smaller and the clocks are halvening. Improvements are taking less time to develop and, when they go into production, their addition is exponential.

     

    Consider how often you may check social media after you’ve added a post, or how often you refresh your inbox after an important email has been sent. Do you think of it in months, days, hours, minutes, or seconds? The sheer speed we now have has changed our definition of delayed gratification; time has recalibrated.

     

    Which takes us back to our kid and grandparent graphic; same reality, different baselines.

     

     

    Your baseline is highly predicated on the way you choose to use the technology available. If you allow it to control your expectations and understanding of speed, you will continue to have difficulty delaying gratification.

     

    And, gratification, is where this all comes together.

     

    Part 3: Where everything comes together

     

    Our greatest pursuits are set on long time horizons.

     

    The more ambitious the goal, the longer you must persist without immediate results.

     

    Perhaps this is one reason why we look at wildly successful individuals as if they are cut from a different cloth. It’s as if they possess some sort of magical power to accomplish remarkable things, meanwhile, we are merely “average.” Yet, fundamentally, they are more masterful at delaying gratification. A small part may be in their genes, but I’d posit it’s mostly hard-work, focus and comfort when waiting to reap reward.

     

    The Reward Delayed Timeline

     

     

    They are achieving goals that have longer reward delays. As their ambition and impact increase so do the stakes and risk. Are they immune to reality and natural stress? Certainly not. They stay grounded and honest to the necessary waiting period needed to get the job done. By surrounding themselves with others who are similar, it makes goals feel more possible and recalibrates their natural baseline to a new timeframe.

    More delayed gratification = more ambitious goals

     

    “The first order thought of instant gratification is a crowded path, ensuring mediocre results at best. Delayed gratification, which requires second order thinking, is less crowded and more likely to get results.”

    –Shane Parrish

     

    A simple example would be writing this article. Believe it or not, this article took two months to complete. That meant opening a Google Doc hundreds of times, only to see incomplete or partial work. The writing too underdeveloped so I couldn’t share my work for feedback. I was forced to wait.

     

    Here’s the thing, if I had to plot it on the Reward Delayed Timeline, it’s not that high; it falls somewhere around “Skilled.” It’s measly compared to a founder starting a business (Industry Leader) or a personal favorite of mine, Elon Musk (World Changer). Getting humanity to Mars is at least a 30 year project, which has minimal feedback loops along the way. That’s some serious second order thinking.

    How to elevate your second order thinking

    Step 1: Determine your most ambitious goal

    • Print a copy of Reward Delayed Timeline (download here)
    • Plot your top 2 or 3 aspirations on the chart

     

    Step 2: Ask the questions

    • Are your reward expectations sitting on the right time horizon?
    • If not, either adjust your goal or reset time expectations
    • Work backwards, set micro-goals that prove you’re progressing

     

    Step 3: Commit to to the delay

    • Whenever you feel down on yourself, pull out your timeline
    • Remind yourself how ambitious your goal is, and at what delay level you committed to.

     

    You can do it.

    Repeat, repeat, repeat.

     

    Anyone can change the world, but it takes patience

     

    As our baseline shifts, it becomes harder to stay on task, delay results, and produce deep meaningful impact.

     

    I believe that if you can put your phone down and detach more often, you’ll be better at setting time-delayed goals and sticking to them. By focusing your efforts on a reward-delayed timeline strategy, you can correctly plot the ambition, skills and patience needed to get the job done.

     

    Because once you become a master of yourself, you can master anything.

     

     

    And that’s Delayed…

     

     

    ..

     

     

    Gratification

     

    …

     

    ..

     

     

    at its finest.