Critical Chance

Category: Human Potential

  • The Next Divide

    The Next Divide

    There’s a divide on the horizon, and it’s unlike ones we’ve seen in the past.

    When we use the word “divide” to describe a phenomenon, it usually refers to access; one group of people has access to a resource, while a second group does not. We’ve seen this around the world with clean water, education, and nutritious foods. If you happen to be born in a country that doesn’t have one of these resources (or a limited supply of one), you’re at a disadvantage and there’s not much you can do about it – tough luck.

    But today we’re looking at a different divide, one which I believe will be synonymous with the 21st century. It has to do with access, but in a completely new way.

    I call it, “The Next Divide” and it’s a digital one.

    Chapter 1:  Active vs Passive

    Are you using your phone, or is your phone using you?

    We live in an amazing time. Your phone can retrieve endless quantities of entertainment, social connection and knowledge.

    Consider for a moment that you’re able to travel back in time to 1980. You encounter your 1980’s doppelgänger self and you do your best to explain smartphones in 2019.

    Let’s face it, we tend to spend a large portion of our time surfing our phones without meaningful intent. This isn’t completely our fault, it more has to do with the implicit relationship between you and your phone.

    While your phone offers you endless possibilities, it comes at a cost. Instead of money, most apps demand something else: your time and attention.

    New-age business models

    Internet companies (and many smartphone apps) make money by keeping you on their products longer. They do this by monetizing their products through online advertising, which directly correlates with engagement and time spent on their website. The more they know about you, the better they can convert your data into cash.

    Question: What happens when our most valuable businesses operate in this way?

    Answer: Our most brilliant data scientists and software engineers are being taken from every other industry to work on the same objective: keep you online longer.

    According to Tristan Harris, a “design ethicist,” the problem isn’t that people lack willpower; it’s that “there are a thousand people on the other side of the screen whose job it is to break down the self-regulation you have.”

    While you’re scrolling through Instagram, there are thousands of MIT, Harvard, and Berkley engineers running multivariate tests, all to determine the best way to break down your self-control and keep you on their app longer.

    Personally, I find myself being used, all the time.

    Last week, I decided to open Instagram to see what my friends were up to. My intention was to scroll for 5 or 10 minutes, but 30 minutes later I caught myself mindlessly watching puppy video clips. The power dynamic shifted because I was no longer making the choices.

    For the first five minutes, I was in control of the content, but soon after Instagram took over by deciding what to put in front of me. Facebook had been battling for control over my attention, and it had won.

    Digital and online for that matter, isn’t a story of all negatives, there are positives too:

    When I was 18 I received a guitar as a gift. Before then my involvement in playing instruments was limited, however learning guitar was a cool aspiration I’d always had. Unlike generations before me, I shrugged off formal training, and instead took to YouTube for lessons.

    Between the hundreds of videos and endless practicing, I learned how to play guitar and still do today. Sure, that took discipline; I played for at least an hour everyday after school, but there were far less distractions back then.

    This is just one small example; there are millions of people who have elevated their musical ability through the type of lessons the internet can provide. If you take a step back and consider this idea, you’ll recognize that people are applying it to all areas of expertise (ie: coding, art, history, the list goes on).

    So ask yourself, who really has the power in your tech relationship? And further, are are you trading your asset (time and attention) at a positive return? Or perhaps the technology has the upper-hand?

    Summary: The 21st Century has created a new tier of human potential, but the question is…

    Chapter 2:  Which Group Are You In?

    While technology is accelerating our ability to achieve amazing intellectual, creative and productive feats, it’s ability to distract us is accelerating at an equal clip. You can’t go a day without being inspired, yet so distracted at the same time. It’s these conditions that make the digital divide possible.

    Sometimes success is 3% brains and 97% not getting distracted by the internet.

    Shane Parrish

    The digital divide will create two groups:

    Group 1 is able to control their focus and leverage technology to improve themselves, and moreover, reach greater potential.

    [Technology] is a great way to automate a habit. You can save for retirement with an automatic deduction from your paycheck. You can curtail social media browsing with a website blocker.

    Technology can transform actions that were once hard, annoying, and complicated into behaviors that are easy, painless, and simple.

    It is the most reliable and effective way to guarantee the right behavior.

    James Clear

    Meanwhile, Group 2 is trading their time for mindless surfing. Their behavior is not only distracting themselves from the world around them, but it’s also causing them to achieve less.

    And technology can rewire our brains.

    The Sleeping Scientist

    We each have a little scientist named Hank, who manages a lab within our brain. It’s Hank’s job to control your focus, and he does this by balancing your distraction liquid 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

    There’s a constant replenishment of distraction at all times; your thoughts wander as new stimuli enter and exit your external environment.

    Some people are born with more liquid than normal, others develop habits which increase their exposure over time. Ultimately, you train your Hank to manage his beakers in the best way possible. My personal favorite strategy is meditation.

    But the crux of the problem is that digital applications are training your Hank to be irresponsible. Have you ever sat down to work on something, only to find yourself distracted 10 minutes later? What about open your phone to do something, and then completely forget?

    That’s your Hank falling asleep in the lab, and when Hank doesn’t pay attention, he causes leaks and spills.

    Here’s what distraction looks like:

    Small naps lead to extreme compounding. . One laboratory spill leads to a broken beaker, which leads to less liquid control in the future. Lab explosions move from a rarity to a constant affair in your head.

    So over a short period (1-2weeks), the difference is marginal. However as the time series extends further, the differences become insurmountable.

    I’ve written about the power of compounding many times; Albert Einstein dubbed it as one of the greatest wonders of the universe. Talk about a bold statement, especially from a man who revolutionized modern day physics (and astronomy).

    Summary: Whether you’re in Group 1 or Group 2, will become a life-changing characteristic.

    Over the next ten years, this macro trend will lead to enormously disparate outcomes. Great or terrible, it all depends on which group you fall into.


    Chapter 3: The AI Revolution

    We’ve now established that access (per the traditional sense) isn’t the problem; each group can connect to the internet at relatively similar speeds. Instead this divide focuses on the way in which people leverage the internet (use the resource).

    Enter Artificial Intelligence, aka: the great accelerator.

    AI is a comprehensive subject, so I’m going to over-simplify a bit here. If afterwards readers have greater interest in the mechanics, I can write up a separate blog post. But for now, let’s just say there have been some major advancements in the field.

    Once of the largest breakthroughs is around this idea called deep learning.

    Previously you could only train a computer to follow a set of rules (or simple algorithms). You would tell a machine that if it hears the phrase, “Knock, Knock” it needs to answer, “Who’s there?” Any variations from “Knock, Knock” and the computer not be able to respond.

    Now, with deep learning, we can give the computer a massive set of data (in this case jokes) and train it to learn humor. Scientists watch it learn in real time and correct it whenever it makes a mistake. After lots of data and repetition, it eventually “learns” the idea.

    Mechanically the computer forms connections just like how our brains do. These are called neural networks, and to get a better visualization of how these systems work, you can check out the Tensorflow Playground.

    What does this mean for the Digital Divide?

    AI is (already) learning your behaviors, tailoring content, and therefore be able to break you down significantly further.

    Remember those thousands of MIT graduates running multi-variate tests? Now imagine if they programmed a super-computer with more power and genius level pattern recognition. They will now discover things about you that were unfathomable with humans experimenting alone.

    Summary: AI is forming a massive crater in the ground, and it is going to push the two groups further apart.

    It will be on us to make sure there are enough formidable bridges to provide opportunity for those stuck on one side, however more likely than not, AI Valley will destroy your hopes of crossing… if you wait too long.

    Conclusion: Big Distractions or Big Dreams?

    I believe these gaps will be filled over time, but it’s going to take time and large innovations in technology.

    Right now companies are making money off of your time and attention, so there’s no incentive to turn a passive person into a more active person. Yet, if we want to grow to our total potential, we need to flip the script and change the way we use our attention ourselves.

    Which side of the digital divide will you be on?

    The earlier you decide, the more you’ll gain.

    “Don’t be on your deathbed someday, having squandered your one chance at life, full of regret because you pursued little distractions instead of big dreams.”


    ― Derek Sivers

    Will you chase your dreams?

    This post was inspired by:

    Irresistible: The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked by Adam Alter

    The Four: The hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google by Scott Galloway

    The Future of Happiness by Amy Blankson

    The Coddling of the American Mind by Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff

    Essays by Tristan Harris

  • Relationships: A Simple Way to Stand Out

    Written by David Tillem on May 17th, 2018

10 minute read

    Relationships: A Simple Way to Stand Out

     

    We are in a period of time where people all over the world PERCEIVE that they are the most connected they have ever been.

     

    This is only partially true.  

     

    Facebook lets you see that your old roommate from college just had a baby, but did you write them a letter to congratulate them? Did you even send a text? Social media gives us the feeling that we are connected but, when it’s not backed by actions, it’s really just smoke and mirrors.  Dating apps are another great example, they can give us the same feeling.  Maybe you are going out on lots of dates, but are you really making connections?

     

     

    Social Media gives us an excuse to not reach out. You saw it on Instagram and double tapped it for the heart. So while we may be staying up to date on important moments, we’re not deepening our relationships.

     

     

    Relationships ebb and flow. I get it. But if you’re like me, you have friends, acquaintances, colleagues, sports team mates, relatives, etc. in your life that you have at one point been close with but eventually drifted apart.

     

    Why is that?

     

    You moved to different cities, you graduated, you changed teams, you got in a fight… whatever the reason, they moved on and you moved on. Were those people important to you? Valuable to your network? Did they make you laugh? Give you confidence? Push you to be better? How did you let these relationships slip away you ask yourself?

     

    They may be gone for now, but not gone for good. In modern terms, these relationships are just a few clicks away from being rekindled.

     

    Yes, the answer is that simple.

     

    What are we waiting for?

     

    Making a phone call isn’t hard. Clearly, it’s something else that is stopping us from reaching out to that old friend. This is where the perception pivot comes into play (to read more about perception pivots click here).

     

    Our mind immediately goes to the worst case scenario. Essentially, the same reason you don’t walk up to the pretty girl at the bar is a different version of the same reason you don’t just call a friend you haven’t spoken to in 5 years out of the blue. Rejection.

     

    But, the truth is, people are ALWAYS happy to hear from you. Always. What’s more flattering than getting a call from someone you haven’t heard from in a while? Who doesn’t love to be called and asked for career advice? Or catch up about old college memories?

     

    Imagine the scenario where your old co worker from your last firm calls you and you chat for 30 minutes and catch up. You go home, tell your significant other about it. Do you say, “ugh, you’ll never believe it, some guy that I worked with years ago called and talked my ear off, couldn’t get him off the phone. What a waste of time.”

     

    OR do you think it goes more like, “Honey, I had a guy that I used to work with reach out. Really great to catch up with him. Turns out he’s working at a competitor of one of my clients. So awesome to hear from him – might even get some business out of it!”

     

    Likely the conversation would be somewhere in between those two scenarios, but you get the point.

     

    Beyond the benefits of networking and generally being “in the know”, why should you put yourself intentionally in seemingly tough and awkward positions?

     

    Robert Waldinger,  a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School recently concluded one of the world’s longest studies of adult life. A key conclusion gleans why relationships are so critical.

     

    Those who kept warm relationships lived longer and happier, and the loners often died earlier. Loneliness kills and on long time horizons, it’s as powerful as smoking or alcoholism.” **

     

     

    We can’t all live in the same place, stay at the same job, have the same interests forever but, if you care about a relationship, don’t let too much time go between interactions. Friendships don’t take a long time to start fizzling out.

     

    I know I am over simplifying it. If it was that easy, everyone would do it, right? Take some baby steps.

     

    Make note of birthdays on your list of people you want to catch up with and, on that day, shoot them a text or give them a call. Talk about an easy in.

     

    Keep up with someone’s LinkedIn updates. A congratulatory call when an old friend gets a promotion is a normal and positive reason to call someone… but NO ONE EVER DOES IT. You will stand out amongst your peers, if you do these things.

    A Simple Framework

     

    1. Make a list

    • People you haven’t spoken to in a while that you that you care about

    2. Tackle the list one by one

    • Go down the list and just start calling people (texting counts, but use it as a tool to set something up)
    • ie: Text someone to organize a time to talk or meet for a coffee

    Download our simple spreadsheet here.

     

    So you might ask yourself, why don’t people do it? I think there are a couple of reasons.

     

    Number one, inertia/laziness/selfishness.

     

    Get over it. Just reach out. Once you do it the first time, and you realize how fulfilling it is, you will want to do it over and over again. Not only will it feel good, but it helps ensure the network you worked so hard at creating remain healthy and strong.

     

    You can feed your selfish side by remembering that staying in touch with smart and successful people will likely help you down the road. Not only that, people will start to look to you as the person that knows what everyone is up to.

     

    It starts out hard with that first awkward conversation but quickly becomes easier and more natural.

     

    It’s an upward spiral effect, and it’s all driven by you taking action.

     

     

    Why else do people not do it?

     

    Fear.

     

    What would I say? We haven’t spoke in so long… again, this is a bogus excuse.  You will likely be the only person calling them out of the blue to catch up and they will be excited that you called.

     

    The usual, “How’s work?”, “How are things?”, “Girlfriend?”, “Boyfriend?”, “Where are you living?” Those types of questions are OK. Remember, you haven’t spoken in a while. Even if the conversation never gets past those surface level topics, it was still worth having. If this is someone you care to maintain a relationship with, it IS worth doing. The next call will be easier.

     

    When I ask people why they don’t keep in touch with their high school friends, their college friends, their old co workers, the answer is almost always, “I don’t know… but I really should“.  

     

    Let’s change that.

     

    I challenge you to go out and make one phone call a week to a friend, old colleague, aunt or uncle that you haven’t kept up with and see how he or she is doing. Make a physical list of people, and keep it wherever you may be most inclined to make these calls.

     

    For me, when I lived in NYC, I wouldn’t take the bus or train to and from work. I walked the thirty minutes, and every day on my way home, I called SOMEBODY.  My mom, old college friends, friends from my hometown etc. Sure, I find value in listening to podcasts and music when walking or driving around, but I have never gotten more out of listening to music than I have strengthening a relationship.

     

    This is the 21st century. We no longer need to write a letter and wait weeks for a response. There is really no good excuse for good relationships to shrivel up and disappear.

     

    Connections matter. A lot. Let’s treat them with the amount of importance they deserve. Make the call.

     

    *Special thanks to David Tillem for this guest post!

  • Delayed… gratification

     

    Written on April 5th, 2018

10 minute read

    Delayed… Gratification

     

    Everyone has trouble delaying gratification, but some people have it worse than others.

     

    Let’s explore why it’s so hard, and how it connects to your success.

     

     

    Part 1: It’s not (totally) your fault

     

    Our brains are wired to favor immediate reward.

     

    Two Million years ago, our only priority was to stay alive. Cavemen didn’t have time to sit around and contemplate life (sorry Aristotle!), instead they needed to hunt and gather. Our human brains encouraged this behavior through a short-term feedback loop, which worked really well. This simple system was at the root of our survival; don’t be eaten, successfully procreate, and improve living conditions.

     

    While humans have evolved and developed the ability to rationalize, our brains continue to use the same decision-making system.

     

    It’s as if we have the newest iPhone, but it’s running on the original Mac software.

    Using fMRI machines, scientists can observe what is going on in our brains while we make decisions. Ultimately, it’s a fight between two parts of your brain; emotional vs. rational.

     

    When we choose immediate gratification, our emotional parts are in control; when we choose future rewards, our rational parts are running the show. (Brain Battles, 2004).

    This explains why, when we’re under stress, we tend to break goals and indulge in bad habits. Stress basically numbs our prefrontal cortex and gives complete control to the amygdala.

     

    That’s our fight or flight mechanism, and, when that’s in control, the fighters take new shape. (The amygdala and decision making, 2010).

     

    It’s like emotional morphs into Muhammed Ali, while rational downgrades into a nostalgic childhood geek.

     

    Place your bets.

    But there’s a greater issue.

     

    Today’s world is significantly different than that of our ancestors; our goals are at odds with our brains.

     

    Want to get in better shape?

    • Work-out daily, become lean months later

     

    Want to start a business?

    • Operate on annual losses, see profit years later

     

    Want to be more financially independent?

    • Save and invest for decades, have enough to retire comfortably later in life

     

    We’re in a constant fight against immediate reward, and our ability to overcome it is extremely predictive of future success.

     

    This is especially true in the 21st century, but, before we apply it to our lives today, let’s take a quick look back on history.

     

    Part 2: Human time dilation and relativity

     

    Time dilation is a scientific concept discovered in 1897 by Joseph Larmor (source). Time dilation occurs when two people are looking at the same event but observe a different amount of elapsed time.

     

    When this gets discussed in the scientific community, it’s focused around velocity and gravitational fields. For example, when we are on Earth we look out into the universe and view things in “Earth-time,” which is based on our gravitational field. If we were on Mars, we would see the exact same events, but happening slightly slower. This is because the gravitational field on Mars is different, and, therefore, time moves at a different speed.

     

    Have you seen the movie Interstellar?

     

    The scene below is touted by some astrophysicists as one of the best visual representations of time dilation ever. In this scene, part of the team spends less than 15 minutes on a high-gravitational planet. When they return back to their ship, 23 years has passed for the crew members who remained on board.

     

     

    I posit this is happening everyday, all around us.

     

    …

    Instead of velocity and gravity, it’s based on our experiences and use of technology.

     

    Here’s what I mean:

     

    The technology we use has subtly established new baselines for our expectations and our patience.

     

    This change began a few centuries ago, but it is progressing. Quickly.

     

    Months: In the 1600s, when settlers first arrived in America, they set up a monthly horseback post between New York and Boston [1]. Back in that time, that was the speed of communication and exploration; it was their reality. Think about it, not only did they wait months to receive messages by post, but it took them months to sail across the ocean and arrive in America. Their reference point for time was in months, basically the currency or units of exchange.

    Days: Once the United States Postal Service was established in 1775, improvements in infrastructure allowed mail to be delivered on a more regular basis. By the 1800s, Americans were becoming used to receiving new mail each day, a vast improvement from the century before. With this improvement, the new baseline shifted from monthly to daily.

    Hours: In the late 1800s, Alexander Graham Bell figured out a way to transmit sounds over wires, creating the landline telephone [2]. While the invention occurred in the 1800s, consumer adoption didn’t start taking hold until the 1960s [3]. With a telephone in every home and office, it was expected that you’d be able to answer or return a call within a few hours of receiving one. What was also widely popular around this time? The color television and the evening news. These technologies helped create a new world, one understood by the hour.

    Minutes: Ray Tomlinson is credited with inventing email in 1972 [4], but it wasn’t until the 1990’s when email became more adopted by everyday people. Likewise, microwaves become common in every home, which meant one great leap; foods that were meant to take an hour to cook, would now be ready in minutes. Children born in the 90’s are also referred to as the “Microwave generation” for this reason. Kids growing up at this time naturally saw the world through minutes, and would now be able to have another basic need even faster than their parents.

    Seconds: Steve Jobs. Just by saying his name, you likely pictured two things; iPhones and black turtlenecks. We can credit him with the proliferation of smartphones, and along with those, improvements in mobile apps, sites and tools. A few seconds, can feel like an eternity. And if you need proof of this point, 53% of mobile users abandon sites that take longer than 3 seconds to load [5]. Today, for better or worse, the baseline is seconds.

    The baseline leaps between generations continues to accelerate.

     

     

    The boxes are getting smaller and the clocks are halvening. Improvements are taking less time to develop and, when they go into production, their addition is exponential.

     

    Consider how often you may check social media after you’ve added a post, or how often you refresh your inbox after an important email has been sent. Do you think of it in months, days, hours, minutes, or seconds? The sheer speed we now have has changed our definition of delayed gratification; time has recalibrated.

     

    Which takes us back to our kid and grandparent graphic; same reality, different baselines.

     

     

    Your baseline is highly predicated on the way you choose to use the technology available. If you allow it to control your expectations and understanding of speed, you will continue to have difficulty delaying gratification.

     

    And, gratification, is where this all comes together.

     

    Part 3: Where everything comes together

     

    Our greatest pursuits are set on long time horizons.

     

    The more ambitious the goal, the longer you must persist without immediate results.

     

    Perhaps this is one reason why we look at wildly successful individuals as if they are cut from a different cloth. It’s as if they possess some sort of magical power to accomplish remarkable things, meanwhile, we are merely “average.” Yet, fundamentally, they are more masterful at delaying gratification. A small part may be in their genes, but I’d posit it’s mostly hard-work, focus and comfort when waiting to reap reward.

     

    The Reward Delayed Timeline

     

     

    They are achieving goals that have longer reward delays. As their ambition and impact increase so do the stakes and risk. Are they immune to reality and natural stress? Certainly not. They stay grounded and honest to the necessary waiting period needed to get the job done. By surrounding themselves with others who are similar, it makes goals feel more possible and recalibrates their natural baseline to a new timeframe.

    More delayed gratification = more ambitious goals

     

    “The first order thought of instant gratification is a crowded path, ensuring mediocre results at best. Delayed gratification, which requires second order thinking, is less crowded and more likely to get results.”

    –Shane Parrish

     

    A simple example would be writing this article. Believe it or not, this article took two months to complete. That meant opening a Google Doc hundreds of times, only to see incomplete or partial work. The writing too underdeveloped so I couldn’t share my work for feedback. I was forced to wait.

     

    Here’s the thing, if I had to plot it on the Reward Delayed Timeline, it’s not that high; it falls somewhere around “Skilled.” It’s measly compared to a founder starting a business (Industry Leader) or a personal favorite of mine, Elon Musk (World Changer). Getting humanity to Mars is at least a 30 year project, which has minimal feedback loops along the way. That’s some serious second order thinking.

    How to elevate your second order thinking

    Step 1: Determine your most ambitious goal

    • Print a copy of Reward Delayed Timeline (download here)
    • Plot your top 2 or 3 aspirations on the chart

     

    Step 2: Ask the questions

    • Are your reward expectations sitting on the right time horizon?
    • If not, either adjust your goal or reset time expectations
    • Work backwards, set micro-goals that prove you’re progressing

     

    Step 3: Commit to to the delay

    • Whenever you feel down on yourself, pull out your timeline
    • Remind yourself how ambitious your goal is, and at what delay level you committed to.

     

    You can do it.

    Repeat, repeat, repeat.

     

    Anyone can change the world, but it takes patience

     

    As our baseline shifts, it becomes harder to stay on task, delay results, and produce deep meaningful impact.

     

    I believe that if you can put your phone down and detach more often, you’ll be better at setting time-delayed goals and sticking to them. By focusing your efforts on a reward-delayed timeline strategy, you can correctly plot the ambition, skills and patience needed to get the job done.

     

    Because once you become a master of yourself, you can master anything.

     

     

    And that’s Delayed…

     

     

    ..

     

     

    Gratification

     

    …

     

    ..

     

     

    at its finest.

     

  • Ninety-Percent of life is about showing up… on time

     

    Written on March 1st, 2018

8 minute read

    Ninety-Percent of life is about showing up… on time

     

    Compounding interest is perhaps one of the most important and powerful discoveries of our time.

    “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”  

    – Albert Einstein

     

    Einstein wasn’t just referencing money when he said those wise words; in nearly every domain of life, compounding can either make or break you. If for example, you only get 1% better everyday for a year, versus 1% worse, you’ll be over 1000% better by end of year.

     

     

    When you break it down, success is actually played at the margins; it’s about getting slightly better each day over a long period time, instead of dramatically better in one fell swoop. [James Clear on Marginal Gains]

    The classic example is saving for retirement. When you start early and stay consistent, accumulating a large nest egg becomes much easier. With an Employer Match, a 20 year old could invest as little as $5 each day to retire a millionaire by 67 (The Impact of a Starbucks Latte).

    If you imagine compounding as a Dr. Seuss-like machine, there are two ingredients going in to create varying levels of “Success” that come out the other side: TIME (when you start) and INVESTMENT (deliberate practice).

     

    Here’s the best part about it, you control both inputs. Given the first example (1% better), you can see that, if time is on your side, you actually don’t need to invest nearly as much. However, the longer you wait, the more you’ll need to catch up. If you contribute $1,000 each year into an investment account, which compounds at 7% each year, below is the final balance you’d have by age 67, based off what age you START:

    If you start at age 5, you’ll be a millionaire. Say you wait until half way through this chart (31 years old) to begin, you’d end up with a mere 17% of the total opportunity.

    Perhaps the more powerful input you control is how early you start, not how much you invest.

    Intellectual Compounding told by greats

     

    “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”

    -Benjamin Franklin

     

    Most people know about financial compounding, but few recognize intellectual compounding. That is, the same exponential curve can apply to your growth as a thinker, an entrepreneur, or any related skill. If we were to plot how much you push yourself to learn, we see the same 1% better trend lines. By learning everyday, you become better at learning new things and adapting to your environment; it’s not a linear relationship, but instead an exponential lift.

    “Read 500 pages every day. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up like compound interest.”

    -Warren Buffett

     

    The prolific speaker, Tony Robbins, has also acknowledged this phenomenon. When Tony started his career, he wasn’t nearly the presenter he is today. In fact, Tony says one of his co-workers was much better than him, which made Tony wonder why. What was difference between them? Did his co-worker have a gift that Tony was incapable of? Not even close. Tony realized he was only giving 1 presentation a week, whereas his co-worker was giving about 3 a week. So to be better, Tony quit his job and started giving 3 presentations a day. In about 2 months time, Tony gave the equivalent number of presentations that the other guy would give for the rest of the year.

    Tony massively elevated his deliberate practice, but he also started early. While his fame emerged after his first book release at age 28, his first job as a motivational speaker was at age 17 – a full 11 years earlier.*

    “The most important thing to do is start investing now so you can unlock the power of compounding.”

    -Tony Robbins

     

    We typically over-praise the individual versus their positive habits, environment, or commitment to growth. Whether you’re starting a business, a new job, or working towards an ambitious goal, compounding is the secret sauce that gets less attention. When we think of becoming great in any domain, we usually think about working harder and longer than the proverbial other guy. Instead, we should be thinking about starting one day earlier than ‘the other guy’.

    Timing needs a higher priority

    Working hard is the easier part; it’s not difficult to wake up an extra hour earlier or stay at the office after hours if it’s something that you find deep purpose and potential in. Figuring out when to start though, that’s hard.

    “Bookstores have an entire ‘how to’ section but not a ‘when to’ section… [Yet] timing… can be everything.”     

    -Eric Barker (This is the Time)

     

    Perhaps we can simplify this though; start now. There are probably millions of great ideas waiting to be unlocked, but we’re too afraid or too slow to start. When you understand compounding, you give timing the attention that it deserves. Successful people understand this and it’s why, when they get asked about their biggest regret, many of them answer that they wish they had started sooner.

    One of my favorite high school teachers used to say, “Ninety-Percent of life is showing up on time.” He would go on long tangents about the value of time, whenever someone arrived late to class. Ironically, we’d end up spending anywhere from 5 to 15 minutes of class time listening to him dissect the topic. To him, it was imperative to show up, but the more important point was to be on time.

    Reflecting more than a decade later, I believe he understood something much deeper about timing. If you want to be the next Mozart, you can’t wait 30 years to begin learning piano, you need to show up when the opportunity first strikes. When you’re late to start, you miss much more than just the opening credits of a movie; you miss the character development, the plot, in fact, you never reach the conclusion. Using compounding interest, a late entry could reduce your returns by 100x; that’s the chance to learn, grow, or become your best self.

    To take advantage of our total potential, we need to be on time.

     

  • Forward vs. backward looking goals

     

    Written on February 22nd, 2018

8 minute read

    Forward vs. Backward Looking Goals

     

    We tend to confuse the two and that’s a big mistake.

    If you’re like myself, when you set your most ambitious personal goals, they tend to sound something like this:

    • Appear on the Forbes, ‘[insert age] Under [insert age] List’
    • Get promoted at work
    • Increase my net worth to $XX

    What do they all have in common? These are all backward looking indicators. In other words, they are signals that you’re doing well, but in the past. While achieving these accolades does correlate with success, they aren’t predictive of future success. Rather, they are proof that success has already happened, in the past.

    Your goals should really sound more like this:

    • Learn a new (seemingly unrelated) discipline
    • Embrace a new positive habit backed by science
    • Reach out to non-local friends more regularly

    The difference? These are all forward looking indicators; they don’t show off as accomplishments in the typical way we view “success.” Yet, if you do any of these things, it’s easier to predict your performance in the future. Following through on these goals won’t get you a celebrated medal, but they are the positive tactics that actually get you there.

    Learning from successful people 

     

    What do Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban, and Bill Gates have in common? They are vivacious learners. They dedicate many hours each day to reading about new subjects, because it challenges their mindset and allows them to connect independent ideas. That’s a forward indicator – agile mental models produce novel ideas but will never receive an accolade for habit itself.

    What do they also have in common? They are all Billionaires. Their net worth continues to climb and is a testament to their consistent ability to keep growing as individuals, entrepreneurs, and thought-leaders. That’s a backwards indicator – it reflects back on their total economic output to date, in the past.

    That’s the formula.

    The most powerful forward indicator is happiness

     

    Compared to their neutral or stressed counterparts:

    • Doctors are 19% more accurate at diagnosing their patients
    • Sales people are 37% better at closing
    • Operationally, we can be up to 31% more productive

    That’s just the beginning; there are studies that show we are more creative, better at problem solving, and more resilient and innovative when we are happy versus neutral or stressed. *

    When we increase wellbeing in the present, all of our our future outputs rise. We are a product of our environments. So, elevating these inputs also helps those around you; your family, friends, and co-workers. Start with happiness and finish with more success.

    We should be challenging our employees and organizations to set forward looking predictors

     

    • How are you going to push yourself to self-learn this year?
    • What’s the one positive habit you will commit to practicing this quarter?
    • When will you find time to connect with your network this week?

    Ignore the accolades, because they come later.

    Remember, when our team commits and crushes the small stuff, we need to celebrate too. Our brains are wired for short-term feedback loops, which makes forward predictors hard to set and follow through on. It’s easy to choose a well-known award to gauge success, but it’s the abstract and consistent daily habits that really produce it.

    By adjusting our measuring stick of success, we can elevate everyone around us. Eventually producing more backward predictors that we know and love.

  • The Impact of a Starbucks Latte

    Written on February 15th, 2018

10 minute read

    The Impact of a Starbucks Latte

    Every morning around the country coffee-fanatics line up in droves, waiting for that favorite cup of Joe. Not only can the wait be long, but it can be more than $5 a cup! Which should beg the question… how much does your morning cup really cost?

    On one side, we have people who get the occasional coffee every month. On the other side, we have the group that can’t go a day without their orange mocha frappuccino (you know who you are)… let’s look at the daily coffee camp.

    To start, if you’re buying a $5 cup each day of the week, you are spending $1,825 each year. If that doesn’t sound expensive enough, consider the income you need to earn to sustain this morning ritual. Using a 15% marginal tax rate, you must earn $2,098 each year. To someone who makes $50,000 a year ($24 / hour) that’s 87 hours or two weeks of working each year!

    Kicking the habit or making it yourself would put $1,825/year in your pocket – sounds simple, minus the potential coffee withdrawals. But what if we took this to the next level?

    Investing the savings into retirement accounts

     

    If you dumped that $1,825 into retirement on January 1st of each year, here’s what your estimated balance would look like over time:

    Assumptions: 7% annual rate of return, lump sum invested on Jan 1 of each year, return calculated without fees

    That’s the power of compounding.

     

    But since we’re talking about retirement, it’s only fair we discuss the employer match. Here, an employer may match the dollars you contribute towards your 401k. There are limitations to the amount they might match (check with your HR department), but let’s assume they’ll match the $1,825 dollar-for-dollar.  

    Now your investment becomes $3,650 each January 1st, and the results are staggering.

    Assumptions: 7% annual rate of return, lump sum invested on Jan 1 of each year, return calculated without fees. Employer matches $1,825, investment becomes $3,650 each year

    If a 22 year old beginning their career made this one change in their daily routine, they would have roughly $744K by age 62, and they’d break $1M by their 67th birthday.

    Saving the equivalent of a daily Starbucks latte could allow working Americans to retire on schedule. 

     

    Even if you don’t have or aren’t taking advantage of an employer-sponsored 401K or match, looking to cut a small habit is worth considering. Redirecting even a handful of dollars a day can go a long way.  It’s worth noting, the retirement problem in America is very complex. There are, of course, other factors contributing to the broader issue; but this is for the individual to consider.

    When small, everyday habits compound, they create extraordinary gains. 

     

    Habits are at the center of everything we do. Everyone has experienced this situation; you’d like to workout more often, but things come up and you never end up at the gym. Perhaps you find there isn’t enough time to get to the things you care about and love. Why? You may feel as though your decisions and routines are repetitive; like you’re driving your car on autopilot. We fail to recognize that we control the habits that we form and, thus, the direction of the car.

     

    “We first make our habits, then our habits make us” -John Dryden

     

    While not everything is within your control, existing habits can stop you from reaching your goals. Be an informed driver and decide the route you want to drive based on the conditions; not on the routine.

     

    “It’s the daily practice of all the monotonous, little, boring things like brushing your teeth that matter the most. There’s no single event. There’s no one thing I can tell you you have to do. It’s an accumulation of lots and lots of little things, which any one by themselves [are] useless, yet together add up.”  -Simon Sinek

     

    When it comes to money, turning a small expense into a small savings could make you a millionaire. The same exponential return is seen across other areas of your life.

    Want to become more insightful?

    • Read about a new subject for 15 minutes each day

    Want to raise your EQ?

    • Meditate for 5 minutes each day

    Want to become a more empathetic leader?

    • Put down your smartphone before stepping into meetings; give your reports 20 minutes of undivided attention each day

     

    Similar to retirement investing, small habit changes will be subtle at first, but  they add up and compound over time. It’s with patience and commitment to betterment, that we can achieve slow, yet incredible gains.

    What’s your Starbucks latte?

    Whichever area it falls into, it may just make you a millionaire.

  • Perception pivots and why they matter

     

    Written on February 8th, 2018

12 minute read

    Perception pivots and why they matter

    You should always focus on valuable realities; a familiar statement I tell Googlers attending my happiness course.

    There are 11 billion pieces of information communicated to us every single second.

     

    Crazy, right? If you look around, there are 11 billion things your brain can focus on. What do you think your brain can actually process (per second)?

    Here is where the really optimistic people shine. Some will shout out, “one-thousand” or even “ten-thousand,” but the answer is actually 40 bits per second. You don’t have to be a math expert to know that 40 is a really, really small slice of 11 billion. That’s the equivalent of choosing 58 people on the entire planet!

    Whatever you focus on, is the reality that you live in; and everybody focuses on something different. This is pretty nuts, and what we’re finding is people are quite literally living in different realities. If you’re a Stranger Things fan, we’re having the same thought; the upside down is being played out in real time! Well, not quite that dramatic, but directionally it’s actually correct.

    There’s an important group of people, who we call, “Positive Geniuses.” They focus on the right pieces of information in their environment, leading them to faster solutions, higher levels of creativity, productivity… the list goes on. They’re using perception to their advantage.

    There are two specific ways you can train your mind to become more like a “Positive Genius,” and I decided to try them out myself for 30 days.

    Daily Gratitudes – there’s a lot that you’re grateful for, so take the time to recognize it

    • Write down 3 things you’re grateful for each day, it can be really abstract or really simple
    • IE: Good music, cute puppies, and the opportunity to learn something new everyday
    • This rewires your brain to look for the positive things in your environment (the better 40 bits)

    Reframing Challenges – multiple realities exist and we need to select the most valuable reality

    • Choose something you’re struggling with and write down three ways you currently view the task; then, contrast it by writing down three alternate yet equally true ways to see that same problem
    • IE: I have a lot of work to catch up on, but I also have a lot of responsibility and control in my job
    • This forces you to view situations in multiple ways and, by doing so, you recognize new factors in your environment you typically miss (a different 40 bits)

    Would I start seeing the positive details in my environment? Could I be missing the most important 40 bits? Will it have any measurable impact on my performance at work or at home?

    The second exercise was most fascinating to me, and it flows into something I dub the “Perception Pivot.” We’ve all experienced it before – you learn a small fact about a situation and suddenly your option or outlook does a 180. IE: You thought the cashier was a terrible person, but suddenly you couldn’t have more compassion for them. Here’s an example that underscores this incredibly well, and it comes from my friend, Sean. At the time, he was a manager of an Apple Store.

    One Thursday, it was busier than normal and the wait was long. One woman in the iPhone repair queue was getting extremely agitated at the staff. She began acting out and screaming at employees. The other customers in line were looking at her like she was a lunatic, they tried their best to just ignore her. Eventually, she demanded a manager and Sean did his best to truly understand the situation by asking her a series of questions. After a few minutes, he found out something critical; she was a chemotherapy patient and used some of the applications on her iPhone to schedule her medical treatments. The longer she waited for her phone to be fixed, the more treatment appointments she was missing.

    I think anyone in that line, if they had known this fact, would have acted differently. Even you, feel completely different about her behavior at this point, right?

    Boom. Perception pivot.

    Back to my research, the short answer is yes; I began to have a more positive outlook everyday, I felt more satisfied at work and even found stronger meaning in my social circles with friends and family. It felt as though the exercises were working, I was certainly more grateful and saw challenges with new vantage points. But my conclusion was only anecdotal; I needed something else to show the exercise was working. And that’s when something incredible happened.

    I was meeting a friend after work who lived in downtown Ann Arbor. The building’s tenant base was predominantly graduate students and newly working 20-somethings. As I came through the lobby, I saw an older woman stacking large moving boxes; there must have been at least 4 of them, each full with belongings. She was having trouble moving them alone, and each lobby-goer passed by as if she wasn’t there.

    It was so strange. I mean, if you ran an experiment showing various situations and asked, “what doesn’t fit?” I think 10/10 test subjects would have chosen this woman. Nothing lined up, she was middle-aged, not recently graduated; moving out, not moving in; visibly upset and unhappy.

    In real life, you’re not forced to pick out things that don’t fit. In fact, we’re usually running on autopilot, deep inside our heads, there’s a lot we miss. Everyone assumes the script is always the same, but many times it’s not. Ah-ha! My perception exercise was working.

    Instead of passing her, my eyes met hers and I just began moving boxes. We didn’t say anything, I just started helping. Suddenly her individual operation evolved into a circuit formation. 10 additional boxes were transported from the lobby, to the parking lot, to the trunk of an SUV. At the car, there were two adults waiting, both in a saddened mood. After we packed the last box away, I answered their thank-yous and walked back towards the building.

    I had almost reached the entrance when I heard, “Wait a minute!” …she had followed me back inside. As I turned around, I noticed eyes held back tears. “That was really kind of you.” she said. “The two parents at the car just found out that their daughter had passed away. It was sudden. I knew her well because I am a professor at the University and she was one of my students, a great person. What you did means so much, it’s hard for me to describe. Getting help from from people in the community has been so important.”

    Boom, perception pivot.

    You should always push yourself to see how situations may be different.

    Angry at the driver who cut you off?

    • Maybe he’s driving his wife to the hospital, she’s in labor with their first-born.

    An employee comes to work late each day of the week

    • Maybe she’s taking care of an ailing parent, hasn’t been home earlier than 11pm each night

    See a stranger moving out of your apartment building?

    • Maybe she’s helping a friend who needs it more than you can imagine

    We tend to give ourselves the benefit of the doubt, but never offer others that same chance. It leads us to miss what’s going on right in front of us because we’re stuck in our own heads. We need to constantly challenge our perceptions, everyday, in every way.

    I challenge you to pick up a positive habit this week and view your reality differently. When we become Positive Geniuses, we don’t just elevate ourselves, but instead, we lift everyone up.

    Perspective pivots matter because they help us reach our greatest potential.